It’s the 190th issue of City Hall Watcher! To celebrate, let’s rank some stuff.

If you’re new around here, I started the Council Power Rankings in 2019, stealing the idea from sports journalism and then haphazardly applying it to municipal politics. It ranks every current member of Council according to the amount of influence they have at City Hall.

It’s arbitrary. It’s also fun. Let’s get into the list.

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Because of all the stats and rankings, this issue runs a little long. Gmail users may find it gets clipped midway through reading. To avoid that, read it on the web.

— Matt Elliott

@GraphicMatt / graphicmatt@gmail.com / CityHallWatcher.com

Read this issue on the web / Browse the archives / Subscribe

The Toronto Council Power Rankings for 2022

Previous Council Power Rankings: 2019 | 2020 | 2021

The rankings below are based on a variety of factors, including committee roles, voting records and recent headlines. These aren’t meant to be objective or scientific — obviously — nor should they be seen as demeaning to any member of Council. As elected officials, all of them are powerful.

Each councillor’s ranking also includes their Team Tory score — a percentage of how often they voted with Mayor John Tory on major items, derived from my Council Scorecard — plus their attendance record for 2022 and the term, based on data included in last week’s issue of CHW.

I’ve added more stats to this year’s rankings. Based on the Council meeting minutes for this term, I’ve counted the number of motions moved at Council by each member and the percentage of time their motions were carried. Neat! There’s a chart with this data at the end of the list. I’m well on my way to developing some sort of arcane municipal politics version of sabermetrics. That’s how I’ll make my millions.

Photos included with the top ten are screen captures from the last year of Council live streams. Unlike last year, councillors this year were consistently able to acquire legal haircuts, so the results are less shaggy. I have to admit I miss the hippie vibe.

1. Mayor John Tory (Last year: #1, Change: ▪️)

Mayor of Toronto

Notable roles(s): Mayor of Toronto

Council Scorecard Team Tory Percentage: 100%

Missed votes (term): 14.65%; Missed votes (year to date): 10.53%

Motions moved (term): 193; Motions carried (including as amended): 100%

Mayor John Tory may not have strong mayor powers yet, but his stats make it hard to suggest he’s been hamstrung by Council. The mayor personally moved 193 motions on the floor of Council this term. 189 carried without amendment, while 4 saw some minor tweaks via other motions. None failed.

According to my Scorecard, he was on the winning side of 97.99% of all significant Council votes.

Tory remains the heavy favourite to win re-election this fall, of course, and, if he does, there’s little reason to think the new Council will push back against him any harder than this one — especially given the new mayoral powers.

So the mayor has just a few things to sweat about: first, he’s losing a capable and loyal ally in Councillor Ana Bailão, who isn’t running for re-election. Second, many of the councillors he still counts as allies — Councillor Stephen Holyday and Councillor Jaye Robinson, for example — aren’t necessarily reliable votes, especially on hot-button issues like the legalization of rooming houses. Even with strong mayor powers, that could cause some headaches.

2. Councillor Gary Crawford (Last year: #6; Change: 🔼)

Ward 20 Scarborough Southwest

Notable role(s): Budget Chief

Team Tory Percentage: 89.29% (↑ from 87.61%)

Missed votes (term): 4.95%; Missed votes (year to date): 11.08%

Motions moved (term): 64; Motions carried (including as amended): 95.31%

The Budget Chief moves up a few spots because, well, Toronto is facing a budget crisis worse than anything the amalgamated city has ever seen. Crawford has talked about staying on as chief in the new term, but how the budget process will play out under the new Strong Mayors legislation remains a big TBD.

Still, I’d expect Crawford to stay heavily involved in the budget if he wins re-election. He seems to be laying the groundwork to play the bad cop to Tory’s good cop. Expect him to talk about the need to make tough decisions to balance the books for 2023.

3. Councillor Jennifer McKelvie (Last year: #4: Change: 🔼)

Ward 25 Scarborough-Rouge Park

Notable role(s): Chair of the Infrastructure & Environment Committee, Chair of Scarborough Community Council, Chair of the Toronto Francophone Affairs Advisory Committee

Team Tory Percentage: 95.27% (↑ from 94.07%)

Missed votes (term): 3.75%; Missed votes (year to date): 6.65%

Motions moved (term): 112; Motions carried (including as amended): 98.26%

After a very busy four years — nobody has as many important committee and board roles — McKelvie’s first term at City Hall ends with her claiming the title of councillor with the most pro-Tory voting record. She was notably tasked with introducing and explaining a successful compromise motion during Council’s July debate on strong mayor powers. Still has a Death Star.

4. Councillor Brad Bradford (Last year: #8; Change: 🔼)

Ward 19 Beaches- East York

Notable role(s): Chair of the Toronto Music Advisory Committee

Team Tory Percentage: 89.66% (⬆ from 87.29%)

Missed votes (term): 5.88%; Missed votes (year to date): 6.35%

Motions moved (term): 91; Motions carried (including as amended): 100%

Bradford jumps up a few spots mostly because Bailão’s departure makes him the odds-on favourite to become Planning & Housing Chair in the new term. He’s someone who has clearly benefitted a lot from Tory’s support. Poised to take a way more prominent role in his second go-around, should he win re-election.

5. Councillor Ana Bailão (Last year: #3; Change: 🔽)

Ward 9 Davenport

Notable role(s): Deputy Mayor (honourary), Chair of Planning & Housing Committee

Team Tory Percentage: 92.31% (⬆ from 91.46%)

Missed votes (term): 5.85%; Missed votes (year to date): 5.42%

Motions moved (term): 193; Motions carried (including as amended): 98.98%

Would be in the number two spot on this list except, well, she won’t be on this list at all next year. Bailão’s departure is a huge loss for Tory. She did a ton of work behind the scenes to tamp down NIMBY tendencies and keep Team Tory in line — most of the time — on major housing votes.

6. Councillor Jaye Robinson (Last year: 6; Change: ▪️)

Ward 15 Don Valley West

Notable role(s): TTC chair

Team Tory Percentage:75.00% (⬇ from 78.87%)

Missed votes (term): 36.22%%; Missed votes (year to date): 15.93%

Motions moved (term): 61; Motions carried (including as amended): 100%

Robinson’s job as TTC chair continues to be ridiculously important as the transit agency navigates budget challenges and ridership drops. The next term will see the additions of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT and the Finch West LRT to the system. Let’s hope the launch of new LRT lines goes better here than it did in Ottawa.

It’s notable, though, that for a key member of Team Tory trusted with a major portfolio, she sure votes against the mayor a lot, particularly on housing matters.

7. Councillor Michael Thompson (Last year: #7; Change: ▪️)

Ward 21 Scarborough Centre

Notable role(s): Chair of the Economic & Community Development Committee, Deputy Mayor (honourary)

Team Tory Percentage: 93.53% (⬆ from 91.96%)

Missed votes (term): 10.21%; Missed votes (year to date): 15.75%

Motions moved (term): 124; Motions carried (including as amended): 97.58%

A steady supporter of the mayor and often talked about as someone who might one day make a run at the job. Thompson’s at his best when he’s criticizing the police budget. Given the sad state of the city’s finances — and the police budget’s status as the single biggest tax-supported municipal expense — it’s a topic he might want to return to in 2023.

8. Councillor Frances Nunziata (Last year: #11; Change: 🔼)

Ward 5 York South-Weston

Notable role(s): Speaker

Team Tory Percentage: 91.95% (⬆ from 89.83%)

Missed votes (term): 0.49%; Missed votes (year to date): 0.75%

Motions moved (term): 43; Motions carried (including as amended): 100%

Council’s longtime Speaker jumps several spots largely due to convincing colleagues that it made sense to implement a program for her ward — and only her ward — to compensate people who experience basement flooding. A real flex.

9. Councillor Paul Ainslie (Last year: #10; Change: 🔼)

Ward 24 Scarborough East

Notable role(s): Chair of General Government & Licensing Committee, Chair of Toronto Zoo Board of Management

Team Tory Percentage: 88.28% (⬆ from 86.09%)

Missed votes (term): 3.67%; Missed votes (year to date): 2.48%

Motions moved (term): 118; Motions carried (including as amended): 95.76%

General Government & Licensing is probably the least exciting committee chair job, but Ainslie seems to relish it. Like Thompson, he’s a steady Tory supporter. Many of the 118 motions he moved this term were requests for stuff to be on the Open Data portal. Someone’s got to do it.

10. Councillor Mark Grimes (Last year: #21: Change: ⏫)

Ward 3 Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Notable role(s): Chair of the Exhibition Place Board of Governments, Chair of Etobicoke York Community Council

Team Tory Percentage: 88.97% (⬆ from 88.79%)

Missed votes (term): 12.51%; Missed votes (year to date): 9.68%

Motions moved (term): 142; Motions carried (including as amended): 95.77%

A big jump for the veteran councillor and one-time midnight mayor. The rise comes on the heels of two significant shows of influence. First, Grimes is the driving force behind the City’s aggressive bid to host — at big-time expense — World Cup matches in 2026. Second, he pushed hard against the ActiveTO program on Lake Shore West, helping to end the program’s regular weekend scheduling.

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11. Councillor James Pasternak (Last year: #13; Change: 🔼)

Ward 6 York Centre

Notable role(s): Chair of North York Community Council

Team Tory Percentage: 85.29% (⬆ from 81.82%)

Missed votes (term): 8.85%; Missed votes (year to date): 6.68%

Motions moved (term): 167; Motions carried (including as amended): 94.61%

I’ll be interested to see if he takes on more prominent roles in the new term. As the at-large member on Tory’s Executive Committee, he’s a reliable vote for Tory but has lost the profile he had when he served as Infrastructure Chair.

12. Councillor Shelley Carroll (Last year: #14; Change: 🔼)

Ward 17 Don Valley North

Notable role(s): Deputy Speaker

Team Tory Percentage: 71.53% (⬆ from 71.03%)

Missed votes (term): 9.98%; Missed votes (year to date): 2.64%

Motions moved (term): 134; Motions carried (including as amended): 88.81%

Carroll’s Team Tory score jumped 27 points from last term, rising each year. She’s gone from a nominal member of the left-leaning opposition to a nominal member of Team Tory. The cat thing could have gone better.

13. Councillor Stephen Holyday (Last year: #8; Change: ⏬)

Ward 2 Etobicoke Centre

Notable role(s): Deputy Mayor (honourary), Chair of Audit Committee

Team Tory Percentage: 57.82% (⬇ from 61.21%)

Missed votes (term): 0.26%; Missed votes (year to date): 0.27%

Motions moved (term): 191; Motions carried (including as amended): 71.20%

A big decline for Holyday, who increasingly can’t muster any support for a lot of his motions. His motions failed 47 times this term, more than any other councillor by a pretty wide margin.

14. Councillor Josh Matlow (Last year: #18; Change: 🔼)

Ward 12 Toronto-St. Paul’s

Notable role(s): -

Team Tory Percentage: 55.86% (⬇ from 56.52%)

Missed votes (term): 3.84%; Missed votes (year to date): 10.78%

Motions moved (term): 136; Motions carried (including as amended): 78.68%

Few are better at generating headlines. He got them this year on issues like busted water fountains and park booze. Matlow’s political transformation since 2010, from ardent centrist to populist left-leaning firebrand, is fascinating. Probably regrets that tweet about the pedal pubs.

15. Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong (Last year: #12: Change:🔽)

Ward 16 Don Valley East

Notable role(s): Deputy Mayor (statutory), Chair of the Collective Bargaining Committee, Chair of the Striking Committee

Team Tory Percentage: 76.69% (⬇ from 77.57%)

Missed votes (term): 11.88%; Missed votes (year to date): 16.09%

Motions moved (term): 124; Motions carried (including as amended): 89.52%

City Hall’s only real Deputy Mayor has always ranked lower than you’d expect, given the title. Now that he’s announced he won’t return for another term, he’s even lower. Any bets on who takes the deputy title in 2023?

16. Councillor Paula Fletcher (Last year: #19; Change: 🔼)

Ward 14 Toronto-Danforth

Notable role(s): -

Team Tory Percentage: 65.47% (⬇ from 66.07%)

Missed votes (term): 9.92%; Missed votes (year to date): 18.62%

Motions moved (term): 221; Motions carried (including as amended): 99.10%

Fletcher jumps a few spots based on the stats. No one this term moved, and passed, as many motions. Always involved in almost every debate on the Council floor.

17. Councillor Gord Perks (Last year: #17; Change: ▪️)

Ward 4 Parkdale-High Park

Notable role(s): Chair of Toronto & East York Community Council

Team Tory Percentage: 53.02% (⬇ from 53.39%)

Missed votes (term): 0.08%; Missed votes (year to date): 0.00%

Motions moved (term): 184; Motions carried (including as amended): 75.00%

Council’s best when it comes to attendance. And the councillor most likely to vote against Tory. Has been facing criticism from cyclists lately as the police keep ticketing bike riders in High Park and the City has been slow to offer real safety improvements on Parkside Drive. Is his generally combative relationship with the mayor’s office making it harder to get things done?

18. Councillor Mike Layton (Last year: #15; Change: 🔽)

Ward 11 University Rosedale

Notable role(s): -

Team Tory Percentage: 58.11% (⬆ from 57.26%)

Missed votes (term): 4.50%; Missed votes (year to date): 8.62%

Motions moved (term): 175; Motions carried (including as amended): 92.57%

Dropped a few spots due to the announcement that he won’t return for another term. Council’s best expert on environmental issues. He’ll leave a big gap that’ll need to be filled.

19. Councillor Joe Mihevc (Last year: NR, Change: N/A)

Ward 10 Spadina-Fort York (Appointed)

Notable role(s): Chair of the Board of Health

Team Tory Percentage: 100%

Missed votes (term): 7.39%; Missed votes (year to date): 7.39%

Motions moved (term): 30; Motions carried (including as amended): 100%

An impressive showing for a temporary councillor. A former councillor (turned lobbyist) before his appointment to replace Joe Cressy, Mihevc got right back into the swing of things, working with their mayor in the fight to convince Metrolinx that the front lawn of Osgoode Hall isn’t a great spot for a subway station entrance.

21. Councillor Mike Colle (Last year: #17; Change: 🔽)

Ward 8 Eglinton-Lawrence

Notable role(s): -

Team Tory Percentage: 81.94% (⬆ from 79.49%)

Missed votes (term): 5.74%; Missed votes (year to date): 10.43%

Motions moved (term): 92; Motions carried (including as amended): 94.57%

Council’s wildcard. Full of surprises. Not a fan of developers, to say the least.

21. Councillor John Filion (Last year: #20; Change: 🔽)

Ward 18 Willowdale

Notable role(s): -

Team Tory Percentage: 61.38% (⬆ from 60.00%)

Missed votes (term): 3.44%; Missed votes (year to date): 2.12%

Motions moved (term): 130; Motions carried (including as amended): 90.77%

Another councillor leaving City Hall this fall. For real, this time. Had a busy summer coordinating the launch of a new refugee shelter in his ward. The only member of Council, as far as I know, to have their house shot at.

22. Councillor Cynthia Lai (Last year: #25; Change: 🔼)

Ward 23 Scarborough North

Notable roles: -

Team Tory Percentage: 87.86% (⬆ from 85.96%)

Missed votes (term): 9.84%; Missed votes (year to date): 24.80%

Motions moved (term): 32; Motions carried (including as amended): 90.63%

A small jump for one of Council’s quietest members. If campaign appearances are any indication, Lai appears to have Tory’s endorsement. Of the councillors who served the full term, nobody moved fewer motions.

23. Councillor Anthony Perruzza (last year: #24: Change: 🔼)

Ward 7 York-West

Notable role(s): -

Team Tory Percentage: 77.69% (⬆ from 76.19%)

Missed votes (term): 11.32%; Missed votes (year to date):9.12%

Motions moved (term): 61; Motions carried (including as amended): 85.25%

No one’s Team Tory score jumped more than Perruzza’s this term. With the stories he tells during his Council speeches, he should start wearing an onion on his belt.

24. Councillor Robin Buxton Potts (Last year: NR Change: N/A)

Ward 13 Toronto Centre (appointed)

Notable role(s): Chair of the Toronto Accessibility Advisory Committee

Team Tory Percentage: 83.33%

Missed votes (term): 1.74%; Missed votes (year to date): 1.74%

Motions moved (term): 7; Motions carried (including as amended): 100%

Before being appointed to serve the rest of Kristyn Wong-Tam’s term, Buxton Potts said she had no plans to run for any ward in this fall’s election. She’s since decided to jump into the Ward 11 race. It’s a move that has left a lot of people — including people who supported her initial appointment — disappointed.

25. Councillor Nick Mantas (Last year; 26; Change: 🔼)

Ward 22 Scarborough-Agincourt (by-election)

Notable role(s): -

Team Tory Percentage: 93.75% (⬆ up from 90.91%)

Missed votes (term): 12.05%; Missed votes (year to date): 8.31%

Motions moved (term): 9; Motions carried (including as amended): 100%

Mantas has been exceptionally quiet since elected in a by-election in January of 2021 to replace Jim Karygiannis. He’s passed just nine motions on the council floor and has missed more than one in ten votes. I’ll be honest: I sometimes forget what he looks like.

26. Councillor Rose Milczyn (Last year: NR; Change: N/A)

Ward 1 Etobicoke North (appointed)

Notable roles: -

Team Tory Percentage: N/A

Missed votes (term): N/A; Missed votes (year to date): N/A

Motions moved (term): N/A; Motions carried (including as amended):N/A

What is there to say? She gave a speech and got appointed. She’ll sit in the chamber during the special meeting next month to approve a handful of heritage matters. And that’ll be the extent of her council career. What a ride.

Left Council: Joe Cressy (Last Year: #2); Kristyn Wong-Tam (#16); Michael Ford (#23)

Charted: going through the motions

Chart showing number of motions moved by members of Council, and the outcomes — Interactive version

As part of this year’s Power Rankings, I also compiled data on the number of motions moved on the Council floor and their outcomes. I did this by saving the minutes for all 47 Council meetings this term. I then used the multi-file search functionality in BBEdit to search for strings like “moved by Councillor Paul Ainslie (Carried)”.

The big caveat here is that this conflates motions that matter a lot, like amendments to policy items, with procedural motions, like motions to confirm the agenda. But given that procedural motions are distributed relatively equally amongst all members of Council, it basically all comes out in the wash.

Some notes:

By percentage, Jim Karygiannis had the worst success rate with his motions. Of 38 motions he proposed before he was removed from office, just 21 of them were carried. That’s a 55.26% success rate.
Councillor Stephen Holyday had the worst success rate of any councillor who served the full term, winning just 71.20% of his motions. His 47 failed motions was a decent distance from second place Councillor Gord Perks, who made 39 failed motions, and nearly double third place Councillor Josh Matlow, who whiffed 25 times.
The average councillor made 110 motions over the term. Councillors significantly under the mark were Councillor Cynthia Lai (32), Michael Ford (27) and Councillor Nick Mantas (9).
Councillor Paula Fletcher (221 motions) narrowly beat Kristyn Wong-Tam (220) for most motions, though Wong-Tam could have had a shot at the top of the podium if they had served the entire term.
Fletcher’s success rate was much better, though. 219 of her motions carried as written, or were carried after amendment, for a 99.1% success rate. Wong-Tam’s success rate was ten points lower. Nobody passed more motions than Fletcher’s 219. Councillor Ana Bailão was a relatively distant second, with 195 carried or amended motions, while Mayor John Tory passed 193 motions on the Council floor.

Make sure you view the interactive version to look at the various vote outcomes.

More from Matt: on the election kick-off, and my love for trees

📰 For the Toronto Star last week, I looked at the field following the candidate registration deadline. For Mayor John Tory, there’s an opportunity to get some more loyal councillors into the downtown seats. But will voters in the centre of the city go for Tory-backed candidates?

🗞 For the Toronto Star this week: 🌳🌳🌳🌳🌳. A look at Gil Penalosa’s tree plan.

Look for it in your favourite newspaper.

The week at Toronto City Hall

WEDNESDAY: 🏆 Bid Award Panel contract award of the week: $14 million to replace the streetcar tracks and reconstruct Adelaide Street between Bathurst and Parliament.

City Hall Watcher #190

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I’ll be back next week with more news as I bring you a brand new edition of LOBBYIST WATCH. Because of the Labour Day holiday, the issue will hit your inbox on Tuesday. See you then.

City Hall Watcher

The 2022 Council Power Rankings