ELECTION 2026 RESOURCES
📽️ View City Hall Watcher’s Election Projection — updated with new polls
👟 Find your match on Council with SimCouncillor
⛳️ Browse Council’s Lobbying Report Cards
📊 Search the Council Scorecard
🤑 Review the Campaign Cash Archive
Good morning. There are zero days left until Election Day. It’s today. Polls are open.
To get you set, consider this a special edition of City Hall Watcher, with your guide to election night.
LIVE RESULTS: Courtesy Alex Olson, City Hall Watcher’s Projection Section will include LIVE results and projections, as the data starts rolling in after 8 p.m.
This is a first-time experiment, so let us know if you notice any problems with the data feed. Alex is available on Bluesky if you want to report any issues.
FINAL PROJECTION: A flurry of polls were added to City Hall Watcher’s Election Projection site late yesterday. All of them were good news for Olivia Chow.
Mainstreet Research: Chow +6
Pallas Data: Chow +10
Pollara: Chow +9
Forum Research: Chow +10
Liaison Strategies: Chow +8
The polls reversed a trend that had been seeing Brad Bradford grow his support.
As a result, the projection now finds Chow winning in 67% of simulated elections, or about two-thirds. That’s an improvement for the incumbent over her position last week, when the race looked like it could be a real coin-flip contest.
But of course it’s worth remembering that these kinds of odds don’t mean anything is in the bag just yet. If the forecast suggests a 33% chance of rain, you might still pack an umbrella.
WHAT’S AT STAKE: 🗞️ In the Toronto Star today, you can find me doing my level best to convince people to vote. If big issues like transit and taxes don’t motivate you, how about toilets?
LIVE COVERAGE: I’ll be appearing live on CBC’s election night special. You can watch live on YouTube, or enjoy it via many other platforms.
The stream will fire up at 7 p.m. I fully intended to get a haircut before this but, well, whoops.
THE DAY AFTER: Tomorrow, City Hall Watcher #407 will be published, bringing you my first cut of analysis about what happened and what it means for Council going forward. You won’t want to miss it. There’s going to be a lot of charts.
If you’re not a City Hall Watcher subscriber, you can sign up here. You’ll get the post-election edition straight to your inbox.
You can also catch the Star’s Mahdis Habibinia and me talking about the electoral fallout on CBC Here & Now at 5 p.m. on Tuesday, with host Farrah Merali.
And because sleep is seriously overrated, I’ll be doing a panel for CivicTechTO at City Hall on Tuesday at 7 p.m. If you want to hear me, The Green Line’s Anita Lee and Lanrick Bennett Jr. talk more about what happened, you can RSVP to attend.
Thanks for reading and supporting independent municipal election coverage.
Into the breach, friends. I’ll see you on the other side.
— Matt Elliott
matt@cityhallwatcher.com / Archives / Subscribe
Candidate Chaos: Parental endorsements, washrooms, and weddings
ENDGAME ENDORSEMENTS: Conservative group ABC Toronto has made some extra endorsements, naming Davenport’s Marco Martins, Spadina-Fort York’s Ian Cunningham, University-Rosedale’s Terri Hawkes and Karina Lemke, Toronto-St. Paul’s Jenny Kalimbet, Toronto Centre’s Daniel Tate and Scarborough North’s Shaun Chen.
I’ve also added some endorsements from the extra-conservative group IntegrityTO. They’re backing Martins, York South-Weston’s Daniel Di Giorgio, and Toronto-Danforth’s Caryma Sa’d.
🕶️ The Endorsement Matrix has been updated
Josh Matlow, seemingly quite confident that he’ll cruise to victory today, continues to spend time endorsing candidates in other wards. Last week, he took a trip to Etobicoke North to back candidate Ala’a Adib.
Valerie Bradford, Liberal MP and mother to Brad Bradford, has endorsed James Pasternak in York Centre.
Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles is backing Davenport’s Alejandra Bravo.
Former Toronto mayor Barbara Hall is backing Ausma Malik in Spadina-Fort York. Former MPP Glen Murray is supporting her opponent, Ian Cunningham.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore’s Amber Morley has the endorsement of former top doc Eileen de Villa. She also secured the endorsement of former councillor (and current MP) Jennifer McKelvie, which is notable as Morley is firmly on Chow’s team while McKelvie has been backing Bradford.
Former Prime Minister Joe Clark (Who?) has endorsed University-Rosedale’s Terri Hawkes. Former Scarborough councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker — whose name I can still spell accurately from memory alone — has endorsed Scarborough Rouge Park’s Neethan Shan. Former mayor David Miller is supporting Chiara Padovani in York South-Weston.
In Scarborough Southwest, Kevin Rupasinghe has been endorsed by his parents. Good get.
ANTI-ENDORSEMENTS: Left-wing group Progress Toronto has released their list of the “least wanted.” These are candidates the group is targeting to lose. They named mayoral candidate Brad Bradford, York South-Weston’s Frances Nunziata, Etobicoke North’s Vince Crisanti and Toronto Centre’s Daniel Tate.
BRIEFLY:
In Toronto Centre, both incumbent Chris Moise and challenger Curran Stikuts posted photos of themselves alongside Olivia Chow, implying that they each have the mayor’s support.
In Parkdale-High Park, Nadia Guerrera hit opponent Diana Chan McNally over reports that McNally has been banned from Queen’s Park. “It's hard to be at the table if you're not allowed in the room.”
University-Rosedale contender Mike Layton, presumably feeling pretty good about his own electoral chances, took a bit of time to hit mayoral candidate Brad Bradford over a 2019 vote to prevent the TTC from reporting on maintenance spending.
Candidates in Beaches-East York are eyeing the end of the contract to provide food service at Woodbine Beach. Initially awarded to Tuggs, the sole-source deal is finally set to expire in 2028. Nate Erskine-Smith is pitching a “marketplace of local artisans and entrepreneurs” as one idea. Candidate James Dann, accompanied by MPP Mary-Margaret McMahon, wants some “really innovative food and beverage ideas.”
University-Rosedale’s Keenan Courtis has been sending a strong pro-cycling message at the protests against the Bloor West bike lane removal. “Make them struggle for every inch.”
Former mayor John Tory recorded a robocall encouraging voters in Scarborough North to support candidate Han Dong.
Etobicoke North’s Chloe Brown has a proposal for controlling the police budget: cut paid duty.
Scarborough-Guildwood’s Paul Ainslie thinks park washrooms should still be open in October. When you got to go, you got to go.
Toronto Centre candidate Joe Cadeau keeps getting confused with Bill Gates. (Updated Oct 26, 10:24 a.m.: Including by me, apparently! This section has been updated from an earlier version that listed Cadeau’s first name as Bill.)
Scarborough-Agincourt’s Jax Ho took a brief pause from his election campaign to get married. He had his wedding officiant help record a campaign message. Do you have to pay extra for that?
The week at Toronto City Hall
MONDAY: 🗳️ It’s Election Day. Go vote! It’s fun.