The rise of TTC delays, minute by minute
City Hall Watcher #257: Guest contributor Matt Alexandris looks at the data behind TTC delays, plus your holiday-themed Council meeting preview
Hey there!
It's a big week, as 2023 barrels toward its climactic end! In today’s issue, guest contributor Matthew Alexandris has crunched some very interesting data on TTC delays, producing some charts that confirm, well, what you’d expect — a lot of delays. But it’s nice to know there’s negative data supporting the negative vibes, right?
I’ve also got your complete Council meeting preview for this week, featuring the deal with the New Deal, an attempt to save the Phoenix Concert Theatre from the ashes, some work on some night moves, and more.
First, though, I’ve got a couple of programming notes to get us started.
🎙️ I will be sitting down with Mayor Olivia Chow next week for what I hope is a wide-ranging chat. Let me know if you’ve got ideas for questions or policy areas I should ask about. I’m interested in hearing from subscribers. Otherwise, I’ll probably ask a bunch of nerdy questions about the capital budget.
📢 Over the next few months, I will be experimenting with some advertising in this newsletter. Don’t worry — paywalled issues will not have ads. Instead, I’m looking at going to a twice-a-week schedule in the new year, separating CHW’s THE WEEK AT TORONTO CITY HALL section into its own ad-supported issue that will be published without a paywall on Thursdays or Fridays, looking at the next week ahead.
With a busy budget season coming up, I think the extra issue will be useful — and prevent my tendency to send out issues that are the length of turn-of-the-century Russian novels. Maybe.
Anyway, I will not be involved in placing ads. We take the separation of Church & State seriously over here. All ad business will be handled by Sean Hansel of the great Politics Today empire of newsletters.
If you’re a business looking at getting an ad in front of virtually all of Toronto City Hall’s movers and shakers, get in touch with Sean for details on pricing and availability.
Onward!
✨ This issue runs a bit long. If it gets cut off in your email reader, make sure to check it out on the web.
— Matt Elliott
graphicmatt@gmail.com / CityHallWatcher.com
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Charted: TTC delays on subways and streetcars are getting longer
By Matthew Alexandris
In 2019, those riding the TTC’s subway system saw average monthly delays of about 3,853 minutes. In the past 12 months, subways have averaged delays of about 5,903 minutes each moth — an increase of 53%.
In 2019, streetcars averaged delays of about 13,790 minutes each month. In the past 12 months, streetcars have averaged delays of about 18,277 minutes — an increase of 33%.
Out of all TTC services, the average length of bus delays is closest to pre-pandemic levels. In fact, while delay minutes are up in recent months after plummeting during the pandemic, the length of bus delays remains lower than before the pandemic.
Still, the less reliable service on the TTC’s subways and streetcars is likely part of why ridership has yet to fully rebound from the pandemic. According to the TTC, weekly ridership is approximately 70 % compared to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, and weekend ridership is between 75% and 80% compared to 2019.
It is worth noting that bus ridership — the one service with a lower delay time than before the pandemic — is the closest to fully recovering.
Because the pre-pandemic budget for the TTC was primarily funded by revenue derived from riders, lower ridership means the TTC has struggled to find money to provide better service — and left them more reliant on finding government subsidies.
During the pandemic, the TTC began receiving large cash infusions totalling nearly $2 billion in emergency assistance from the provincial and federal governments to keep service levels close to pre-pandemic levels and provide transportation for essential workers.
The New Deal struck recently between Mayor Olivia Chow and Premier Doug Ford’s government will provide more operating budget funds to improve service for riders, but the influx of money — expected to total approximately $410 million in 2024 and $110 million in 2025 and 2026 — will be stretched to address numerous issues affecting ridership — including increasing the presence of police or safety officers in vehicles and at stations, expanding cell service, and creating better emergency reporting options and response times.
In addition, the money for improving operations only lasts until 2026, with much of it front-loaded in 2024, so Toronto will not have the funds to sustainably improve service and address delays year after year — leaving the TTC with tough choices in the years ahead.
Cutting TTC service would, of course, quickly rein in costs but could lead to a “transit death spiral,” in which service cuts lead to declining ridership, prompting revenue losses, which lead to more service cuts. Even worse, less TTC service and further falling ridership could spiral into an “urban doom loop,” in which people have fewer transportation options in the city, leading to fewer customers for businesses, negatively impacting consumption, and potentially even causing commercial tax revenues to decline.
In this scenario, to balance its operating budgets, the City could have to do things like raise commercial property taxes further — potentially eroding the business climate — or cut more services.
Another option is for the TTC to cut the budget for their capital investment plan to acquire new trains, streetcars and electric buses; provide modifications and upgrades to tracks and facilities; and for maintenance to keep its fleets in good repair. If the TTC were to underfund its capital investment plan, it would further erode its transportation network. The more erosion, the worse service gets, and, crucially, the more expensive it is to address those issues. For example, the recent derailment of a subway on Line 3 led to the TTC shutting down the service altogether — it is now running buses that have produced longer trips for riders in Scarborough.
Because the TTC receives the vast majority of its operating subsidy from the City, there are things City Hall could do to raise revenue, like increasing property taxes or introducing new revenue tools — but with so many other issues facing the municipal government, it will always be hard to go it alone.
Knowing this, the TTC has long appealed to the province and the federal government for sustainable operating budget support. Still, so far, those calls have generally only resulted in temporary bailouts, even though the city has always had a really good case for more provincial and federal operating funding for the TTC. According to the TTC’s 2022 annual report, the TTC’s farebox recovery ratio — even accounting for pandemic cash infusions — was 37.8%, which would have been comparable to pre-pandemic ratios for other similar transit systems, according to data collected by CodeRedTO.
Toronto’s pre-pandemic farebox recovery ratio of around 70% made it one of the least-subsidized transit systems in North America.
With public transportation an important issue for the province and the federal governments — as a means to improve travelling efficiency, commuter productivity, community health, and addressing carbon emissions — letting the TTC transportation network erode would be a huge mistake that causes irreparable damage.
Matthew Alexandris is a freelance writer interested in issues related to housing based in the Greater Toronto Area. You can follow him on Twitter here.
Council preview: New wheelings and new dealings, making the night time the right time, the Phoenix saga, and more
City Council meets this week! They’ll get started at 9:30 a.m. on Wednesday, continue on Thursday and — if we’re collectively on some kind of naughty list this year — potentially finish up on Friday.
Here’s what’s on the agenda.
Deal me in
CC13.2 - As expected, Council will be asked to “approve in principle” the terms of the deal struck between Mayor Olivia Chow and Premier Doug Ford. The attached staff report does not provide much new information about how the deal will affect the City’s 2024 budget and beyond, but I’d expect that information in the budget process.
Generally, though, staff seem happy:
While no single set of actions will entirely address the City's revenue gaps and financial challenges, the effect of the financial supports from the Province will be a substantive improvement to the City's financial position. The New Deal will comprise a critical part of the City's multi-phased approach to improving long-term financial sustainability and will be implemented in conjunction with a wide range of solutions to address the fiscal gap, as previously described in the City's Long-Term Financial Plan.
Night moves
EC8.13, EC8.14, PH8.2 - As part of a long-running review of Toronto’s “Night Economy,” a series of reports recommend a bunch of changes to licensing and zoning to permit more stuff to happen when it’s typically dark out.
The biggest changes relate to things like reducing the licensing requirements for businesses that only sell pre-packaged food and drink, increasing the amount of space restaurants can devote to their “ancillary entertainment area,” removing some truly outdated restrictions surrounding arcades — including rules about the number of machines allowed — and allowing nightclubs to exist outside of the downtown area.
These changes, as you’d expect, have prompted some letters.
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